In a wild series of events, hopes for a spot in ethereum ETF surged seemingly out of nowhere. In the afternoon of May 20, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on X, noting that he is raising his odds of a spot ethereum ETF approval from 25% to 75% after “hearing chatter this afternoon that SEC could be doing a 180”. The price of ethereum spiked almost instantly, going from less than $3,100 to over $3,800 in less than 24 hours.
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Balchunas believes that the ETFs have a solid chance of at least partial approval by Thursday, which is the final date for the VanEck ETF application. According to Balchunas, there is a possibility that the SEC will approve the 19b-4 filings, which would allow ETFs to be listed on the exchange. However, the ETFs would also need S-1 approval, a detailed registration document for each ETF. The move, according to Balchunas, would allow the SEC to get the ball rolling on the ETFs while still having time to do their due diligence on each ETF application before making a final decision.
However, Balchunas is just a single opinion. While he is a knowledgeable insider and likely has veritable information backing his stance, it is also important to consider what others are thinking about the probability of an ETH ETF within the week.
Polymarket is a unique application of crypto. The site allows anyone to bet on the outcome of events using crypto. The events have a “yes or no” outcome, and users can bet on either “yes” or “no.” The potential payout is proportional to the assumed probability of the outcome. So, if most market participants believe that the event is likely to occur, the payout for betting on “yes” will be much lower than betting on “no.” It works similar to sports betting: events with lower chances of winning pay higher, and the payouts evolve as bettors make their picks.
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The site hosts various events to bet on, such as the upcoming presidential election, several Elon Musk tweets over a week, and how many weeks in a row Taylor Swift’s album will be No.1.
The site attracts hundreds of millions in bets, including a bet on whether the ethereum ETFs will be approved by May 31. Before the news from Balchunas broke, the site was pricing in a 10% chance of ETF approval by May 31. However, the odds skyrocketed to nearly 75% within hours. The odds are currently around 70%, meaning bettors could earn nearly 50% returns if the event occurs. On the other hand, betting against ETF approval would net returns of over 200%.
The rules of the bet state that it “will resolve to ‘Yes’ if any spot ethereum ETF receives approval from the SEC by May 31, 2024, 11:59:59 p.m. ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to ‘No.'” This language is somewhat unclear, because, as noted above, approvals may not be as clear-cut as governed in the rules. Regardless, the bet is extremely interesting to watch, as it allows for insight into how retail and other market participants are gauging the possibility of ETH ETFs by the end of the week.
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This article Will Ethereum ETFs Get Approval On Thursday? Here’s What This Crypto Prediction Market Tells Us originally appeared on Benzinga.com
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