(Bloomberg) — Fresh US data showing persistent inflation so far this year and limited signs of a weakening job market underscore a Federal Reserve in no rush to start lowering interest rates.
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Industrial production figures illustrated a euro area economy that’s merely limping along. In Japan, speculation intensified for the first rate hike in more than a decade after the country’s largest labor union secured big wage deals.
The world of geopolitics continued to evolve, including Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, declining foreign investment in China and US concerns about Beijing’s subsidies for shipbuilders.
Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy, geopolitics and markets:
World
Ukrainian drone attacks halted three oil refineries deep within Russian territory in an assault President Vladimir Putin said was aimed at disrupting his presidential election later this week. An aerial strike on Wednesday caused a blaze at one of the country’s biggest crude-processing facilities, Rosneft PJSC’s Ryazan plant near Moscow. Since the start of this year, Ukraine has used drones to target important Russian oil facilities from the Black Sea to the Baltic Sea.
US President Joe Biden pledged to look into a petition from a group of unions asking his administration to review China’s subsidies for shipbuilders, as tensions between the world’s two largest economies simmer on trade and key supply chains during a critical American election year. Shipbuilding is emerging as the latest battleground in the US-China trade war.
Georgia and Ukraine cut rates, while Angola raised them. After holding rates steady last week, the European Central Bank presented a new framework for how it implements monetary policy, preserving the current system of steering interest rates while giving lenders more of a say over how much cash they need to operate.
US
The latest data on inflation and unemployment filings gave Fed officials more reasons to hold off on cutting interest rates, even as retail sales suggested a slowdown in consumer spending. Key components from the latest consumer and producer price reports that inform the personal consumption expenditures price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation metric — suggest the February PCE will come in strong again when released later this month.
The Biden administration is offering a $2.26 billion loan to help Lithium Americas Corp. develop a Nevada lithium deposit that’s the country’s largest. Demand for lithium, which also is used for grid storage and weapons, is projected to exceed current production by 2030. About 65% of the critical mineral is processed in China.
Europe
Euro-area industrial production slumped at the start of the year, raising the prospect that the economy as a whole is struggling to grow in the first quarter.
The UK economy rebounded in January, registering modest growth after falling into a technical recession in the second half of last year. Gross domestic product rose 0.2%, bolstered by services and construction, after a 0.1% decline in December
Asia
Japan’s largest union group announced stronger-than-expected annual wage deals, a result that will fuel already intense speculation that the central bank will next week raise interest rates for the first time since 2007. The central bank has long pursued a goal of achieving sustainable 2% inflation. A key component of that goal is setting in motion a virtuous cycle in which wage growth feeds into demand-led price gains.
India’s inflation was little changed in February, staying above the central bank’s target and giving policymakers reason to remain cautious. India’s strong economic growth last quarter is another reason for policymakers to stay on guard.
South Korea’s direct investment flows into China last year fell by the most in data going back more than three decades in a sign of weakening economic ties between the two countries. The re-orientation of South Korea’s investment away from China comes amid a change in the breakdown of its export markets. China is close to being overtaken by the US as the biggest destination for South Korean exports.
The Philippines is counting on the US and its allies to play a crucial role in its plans to explore energy resources in the disputed South China Sea, according to Manila’s envoy to Washington. The Philippines is exploring several options in its quest to tap the resource-rich South China Sea, waters that China claims almost in its entirety. The body of water is estimated to hold significant quantities of oil and gas
Emerging Markets
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s plan to help Brazilians escape the record amounts of debt they amassed during the pandemic remains well short of its targets as it approaches its March 31 expiration, denting his efforts to unleash consumer spending and boost growth in Latin America’s largest economy.
Argentina’s monthly inflation slowed for a second consecutive time as the impact of December’s large peso devaluation fades and President Javier Milei’s austerity measures push the economy into recession. The night before the release, the central bank announced a surprise rate cut to 80% from 100% as policymakers said they see monthly inflation cooling.
–With assistance from Philip Aldrick, Andrew Atkinson, Jan Bratanic, Andreo Calonzo, Sam Kim, James Mayger, Ari Natter, Yoshiaki Nohara, Anup Roy, Augusta Saraiva, Zoe Schneeweiss, Manolo Serapio Jr., Manuela Tobias, Sylvia Westall, Josh Xiao and Erica Yokoyama.
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