Eleven days ago, Sen. Lindsay Graham arrived for a private meeting in a lavish tent with ruby red rugs and low burgundy cushions in the western Saudi Arabian oasis town of Al Ula, home to ancient Nabatean ruins. The tent is guarded by layers of Saudi security that protect the nearby winter camp of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
Graham, a South Carolina Republican, was a participant in a series of high-stakes meetings with the crown prince in recent weeks involving American lawmakers and diplomats hoping to rekindle a potential treaty between Saudi Arabia, Israel and the United States. Their ambitious goal is to hammer out a framework for concluding the Israel-Hamas war, stabilizing the Middle East and paving the way for some form of Palestinian self-governance in the Gaza Strip.
The big question is: Will the Israeli government — and the Israeli public — accept a path to Palestinian state in exchange for an American-backed peace treaty with Saudi Arabia?
Despite months of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and hard-line members of his right-wing coalition publicly dismissing the idea of a Palestinian state after the Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attack, a normalization deal with Saudi Arabia that ends the Israel-Hamas war is seen as a potential political win for Netanyahu, according to six people familiar with the talks.
“Any deal for normalization with Saudi Arabia right now would be a major win politically speaking for Netanyahu and an exit strategy,” said Nadav Eyal, a columnist for the Israeli newspaper Yediyot Ahronot.
The plans being discussed by Saudi, U.S. and Israeli officials provide a framework for rebuilding Gaza with significant support from neighboring Arab countries; establishing moderate Palestinian leadership for Gaza; as well as ratifying a defense treaty between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia that will provide an alliance against their mutual foe Iran, according to people familiar with the talks. Saudi Arabia has insisted that any plan include a realistic pathway to a Palestinian state.
An adviser for a member of Israel’s war Cabinet who asked not to be named said that “if the Saudis come with a deal that is good for Israel, of course we will vote for it.” The adviser, and other Israeli officials, cautioned that the American push is premature because the Israeli public is not ready to discuss Palestinian state in the wake of the worst terrorist attack in Israeli history.
“The subject of a Palestinian state is too hot to touch in Israel right now,” said a second senior Israeli government official. “People are talking about the war and the hostages, not rewarding the Palestinians. It’s also unclear when and how the war will even end.”
The political obstacles in all three countries are significant. While Saudi Arabia is seen as a potential leader in the effort to create stability in Gaza, the Gulf state is reportedly hoping to secure civilian nuclear technology agreements that would need the approval of the U.S. Congress, according to a former U.S. national security official. Moreover, Saudi Arabia’s insistence that any deal bring with it a realistic pathway to a Palestinian state, echoed by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, would be contentious in Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition.
Saudi officials did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Despite the significant challenges that could derail the deal, if talks move forward, there will likely be more meetings in the crown prince’s tent in the coming months.
American visitors
The American push for the deal with Saudi Arabia and Israel aims to build on the Abraham Accords, which established relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan in 2020.
“The Abraham Accords were a great first step, but Saudi-Israel normalization is really the brass ring,” said Michael Singh, managing director at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council. “Saudi Arabia is the most influential nation in the Muslim world, and it’s an incredibly important state in the Middle East because of its size and its wealth.”
Central to this push has been Graham, who has visited Saudi Arabia three times in the last 12 months. Israeli and American officials familiar with the deal said there is a push to get it done while President Joe Biden is in office to secure Democratic votes for a U.S.-Saudi security treaty, while Graham can deliver the Republican votes to reach the 67 needed for ratification in the Senate.
Graham first traveled to Israel to discuss the deal with Israeli leaders, and held a closed-door meeting with Netanyahu on Jan. 4.
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