(Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic says he now projects just one interest-rate cut this year, adding that reduction will likely happen later in the year than he previously expected.
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Bostic had previously said that it would be appropriate for the Fed to lower rates twice in 2024, with the first of those cuts likely coming this summer.
It was a “close call,” Bostic told reporters in Atlanta on Friday. “We will have to see how the data come in over the next several weeks.”
The Atlanta Fed chief said he is less confident on the trajectory of inflation than he was in December, noting “some troubling things” underneath the headline figures. He pointed specifically to the breadth of items in the consumer basket that are rising at an elevated rate.
A key gauge of underlying inflation topped expectations for a second month in February, and the Fed’s preferred measure — released next week — is anticipated to show still-elevated price pressures.
Fed officials held interest rates steady for a fifth consecutive meeting Wednesday and narrowly maintained their outlook for three interest-rate cuts this year. Following the decision, Chair Jerome Powell said central bankers expect to gain confidence that inflation will move to the 2% goal and that the first reduction would likely be “at some point this year.”
While policymakers see the federal funds rate reaching 4.6% by the end of 2024, according to their median rate projection, individuals’ expectations were split. The Fed’s “dot plot” showed 10 officials forecast three or more quarter-point cuts this year, while nine anticipated two or fewer.
Read More: Fed Stays on Track for Rate Cuts With One Eye on Bumpy Inflation
“The economy continues to deliver surprises and it continues to be more resilient and more energized than I had forecast or projected,” Bostic said. “And so as a consequence, I’ve sort of re-calibrated when I think it’s appropriate to move.”
Given that the economy is doing well, “that gives us space for patience,” he said. “And we should just be patient.”
Regarding the Fed’s balance sheet, Bostic supports slowing the pace at which the central bank shrinks its portfolio of assets “relatively soon.”
(Updates with additional quotes from Bostic.)
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