Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein have revised their Bitcoin price target upwards, forecasting that the cryptocurrency could reach nearly $200,000 by the end of next year. This optimistic prediction follows strong inflows into spot U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) since their approval in January. Previously, Bernstein had set a target of $150,000 for Bitcoin.
The analysts’ projection is based on the assumption that spot Bitcoin ETFs will account for around 7% of the total circulating Bitcoin supply by the end of 2025. “We see Bitcoin ETFs as on the cusp of approvals at major wirehouses and large private bank platforms in the third and fourth quarters,” wrote Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra in a note to clients.
They describe the institutional basis trade as a “Trojan Horse” for adoption, with institutional investors currently evaluating long positions. Presently, nearly 80% of spot Bitcoin ETF flows come from self-directed retail investors via broker platforms, while institutional integrations with wirehouses are still in their early stages.
According to Bernstein, combined ETFs have already attracted around $15 billion in net new flows. The analysts expect Bitcoin ETFs to represent approximately 7% of Bitcoin in circulation by 2025 and about 15% by 2033. They project that spot Bitcoin ETFs will reach around $190 billion in assets under management (AuM) by the market peak in 2025 and $3 trillion by 2033.