(Bloomberg) — New Zealand central bank governor Adrian Orr said policymakers still need to ensure that inflation expectations are contained, suggesting they won’t be signaling a pivot to interest-rate cuts anytime soon.
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While all measures of price pressures have declined, headline inflation at 4.7% remains more than twice the 2% midpoint of the Reserve Bank’s 1-3% target band, Orr told the New Zealand Economics Forum at Waikato University on Friday.
“We’re moving in the right direction but it’s this tail end,” he said. “We’ve got more work to do to have inflation expectations truly anchored at that 2% level. This is the part where capacity pressures and inflation expectations are the monetary committee’s real focus.”
Central bankers around the world have recently been pushing back against investor bets that rate reductions are imminent, saying they need to be sure that inflation is truly tamed. The RBNZ has taken an even more hawkish stance, warning late last year that further rate increases can’t be ruled out and that it won’t entertain cuts until 2025.
The RBNZ’s Monetary Policy Committee will deliver its first rate decision of the year on Feb. 28 with most economists expecting it will maintain the Official Cash Rate at 5.5%.
Two-year ahead inflation expectations declined to 2.5% in the first quarter from 2.76% in the fourth, the RBNZ said earlier this week, citing a survey of businesses and forecasters. That’s the lowest reading since 2021.
In his remarks today, Orr spoke at length about core inflation, saying the RBNZ wants to see it return to its 1-3% target. The bank’s preferred measure of core inflation eased to 4.5% in the fourth quarter.
“We observe headline but we are targeting in a large sense core inflation,” Orr said.
(Updates with latest inflation expectations data in sixth paragraph)
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