By Gabriel Burin
(Reuters) – Brazil’s consumer price data for May will likely show an acceleration in inflation, reflecting the damage from recent disastrous floods in the south, according to a Reuters poll published on Monday.
Annual inflation, at a forecast 3.89%, would have also deviated further from the center of the official goal of 3% +/- 1.5 percentage points, but this would be attributable to temporary disruptions in production and logistics caused by excessive rains in Rio Grande do Sul state.
Price data to be published on Tuesday are set to show a monthly increase of 0.42% in May against 0.38% in April and of 3.89% on the year versus 3.69%, according to median estimates of 23 economists polled June 5-10.
“This release is likely to begin reflecting the effects of flooding in the south of Brazil. Despite food-at-home inflation decelerating on a monthly basis, it could accelerate y-o-y to 2.9% from 2.6%,” UBS analysts wrote in a report.
“We expect (food inflation) to peak at 4% in June, before slowing down to 3.4% in August and 3.1% by the end of the year… with most of the effects being temporary, we believe most of the foodstuff rise from May and June could revert in subsequent months.”
In its latest effort to contain the economic spillover of the historic floods that killed more than 170 people, Brazil bought 263,370 metric tons of imported rice in a rare auction to prevent a price hike.
Some preliminary data have shown food inflation from the floods was lighter than initially feared. Still, many economists, including the orthodox leadership at the central bank, remain worried about longer-term trends.
Inflation expectations have continued advancing towards 4% this year, given a relatively strong job market, persistent worries on the fiscal side, and diverging views among Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) policymakers.
“The economy is still growing close to its potential, the labor market continues to tighten, and the Brazilian real is under pressure for various domestic and global reasons,” Societe Generale economists wrote in a report.
“A very slow process of inflation moderation might resume after July, but we do not expect inflation to fall anywhere close to BCB’s target… during the policy horizon.”
Brazil’s economy grew 2.5% year-on-year in the first quarter, rebounding from a sluggish second half of 2023.
Last month, Brazil’s finance minister denied the government was considering changing the inflation target after calling the 3% goal “very demanding”, adding he favored a longer period than the current calendar year to evaluate compliance to it.
(Reporting and polling by Gabriel Burin; Editing by Susan Fenton)