Arthur Hayes, the co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX, now managing his family office Maelstrom, has declared that the crypto bull market is “reawakening.” This optimistic outlook follows recent interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank, signaling a shift in global economic policy.
On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada became the first major central bank to cut interest rates this year, reducing them by a quarter-point to 4.75%. The European Central Bank followed suit yesterday, lowering rates by the same amount to 4.25%. These moves have sparked significant market reactions, which Hayes described as “fireworks,” predicting they will “catapult crypto out of the northern hemispheric summer doldrums,” according to his June 6 Substack post.
Hayes speculated on whether the Bank of England might follow the trend, although he noted this was not his primary expectation. He anticipates the catalyst for further significant changes will come in August at the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Symposium, a key event where substantial economic policy updates are often unveiled.
Upcoming in the economic calendar are the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 11-12 and the G7 Leaders’ Summit in Apulia, Italy on June 13-14. Hayes questioned whether the Fed would cut rates this close to the November U.S. presidential election, remarking that it would be “political suicide” given ongoing inflation concerns. He believes the Fed is likely to hold rates steady at its next meeting.
Hayes also expects no imminent changes from the Bank of Japan but suggested that the Bank of England, meeting shortly after the G7 Summit, could be the next to surprise with a rate cut, following the examples set by the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank. Hayes pointed out that central banks are beginning to ease monetary policies, which he views as a clear trend. His advice to the crypto community is to go long on Bitcoin and other altcoins, which he colloquially refers to as “sh*tcoins.”