On May 15, the cryptocurrency market experienced a surge in total capitalization by 5.5% following the release of inflation and retail sales data from the United States. However, Ethereum (ETH) failed to fully benefit from this upward momentum. Bitcoin’s (BTC) price surged over 7.5% over the last 24 hours to reach $66,190, outperforming Ethereum, which only gained 5% over the past 24 hours, and struggled to surpass the $3,000 resistance level.
The rally in the crypto markets was largely driven by U.S. macroeconomic data, particularly the consumer price index (CPI) data, which revealed a 3.4% year-over-year rise in April, aligning with market expectations. However, the retail sales data for April indicated stability compared to the previous month, contrary to economists’ forecasts of a 0.4% increase. This unexpected result increased the likelihood of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) implementing measures to stimulate the economy.
Some analysts believe that the pending decision by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on May 23 regarding VanEck’s spot Ethereum ETF application is a key factor influencing Ethereum’s struggle to surpass the $3,000 resistance level. Traders are hesitant to make investment decisions until the outcome of the SEC decision becomes more certain. A rejection from the SEC could result in a short-term market correction, despite Ethereum’s promising long-term prospects.
Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, expressed doubts about the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF in 2024, given the SEC’s cautious approach toward products that may be classified as securities, especially those involving native staking services.
This skepticism is also reflected in the Ether derivatives markets. Currently, the Ether futures premium (basis rate) stands at 9%, indicating a lack of enthusiasm regarding the spot ETF decision and suggesting a neutral sentiment among traders. In the options market, there is a balance in the demand for call (buy) and put (sell) options, indicating uncertainty about Ethereum’s future price direction.