A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland
European traders may do well to brace themselves for a sell-off on Friday, with equity markets sinking around Asia as investors adjust to the prospect of later and fewer Fed rate cuts this year.
Declines in markets like Hong Kong and South Korea of more than 1% have been much steeper than the 0.3% slips across Wall Street indexes on Thursday, although tech shares, which are sensitive to rates expectations, remained at the centre of all those losses.
On Japan’s Nikkei, for example, tech was the only sector to decline, but the heavy weighting of its chip-sector giants was enough to pull the index to a 0.3% loss.
Of course most of these markets – in Asia, Europe and the U.S. – have room to fall, with many sitting just below all-time highs.
There’s little to distract from speculation about Fed cut timing during the European day, with CPI readings in places like France and Italy the most notable items on the docket.
It was heated U.S. producer price numbers overnight, following fast on the heels of consensus-topping consumer inflation, that eroded expectations of a June Fed rate cut. The Fed’s dot plot at the conclusion of its policy meeting next Wednesday is now crucial for guessing just how cautious Chair Jay Powell and his team will be.
The Bank of England also sets policy next week, on Thursday, as does the Swiss National Bank.
But arguably the main monetary policy event will be the Bank of Japan’s two-day gathering, ending Tuesday, with speculation running high for an exit to at least some part of its ultra-easy stimulus.
A hike out of negative rates could even be sealed when Rengo, Japan’s largest trade union, announces the results of its annual wage negotiations with workers early in the European day today, with all signs so far pointing to bumper pay increases.
Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:
-Japan wage negotiation announcement
-France, Italy final CPIs (Feb)
-ECB chief economist Philip Lane speaks at Imperial College Business School in London
(Editing by Sam Holmes)