(Bloomberg) — Japan is seeing a resurgence of atomic power as the country marks the 13th anniversary of the massive earthquake and tsunami that led to the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Gold is on fire, soaring to a fresh record. Meanwhile, Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. is slated to release its fourth-quarter results, which have been delayed amid an accounting probe. Oil explorers, investors and analysts will gather at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference, one of the industry’s biggest global events.
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Here are five notable charts to consider in global commodity markets as the week gets underway.
Nuclear Power
While Japan suspended operations at all of its nuclear power plants after the March 11, 2011, meltdown at Fukushima, facilities are coming back. Nuclear generation is set to surge 20% from last year as some of the final reactors pending restarts come online, according to BloombergNEF. At the same time, demand for liquefied natural gas imports is set to decline, with the restarts and higher coal-fired electricity generation squeezing appetite for the superchilled fuel in the power sector.
Metals
Spot gold is fresh off its best week since October when Hamas attacked Israel, settling within striking distance of $2,200 an ounce after gaining 4.6% for the five-day period. The upward momentum is buoyed by strong buying from global central banks and bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Lower rates would be supportive of further price gains for the non-interest bearing precious metal and may prompt analysts to revise their year-end forecasts. For now, the median projection is $2,100 an ounce, below current spot prices. The next Fed rate decision is March 20.
Energy Transition
The energy transition will take center stage at CERAWeek in Houston. The prospect of a rapid increase in demand for critical minerals amid the shift to electric vehicles poses huge questions about the availability and reliability of supply, and carries the potential for new challenges to energy security. A typical electric car requires six times the mineral inputs of a conventional car, according to the International Energy Agency. And it’s not just the transportation sector that will put a massive strain on resources: An onshore wind farm requires nine times more mineral resources than a gas-fired plant, the IEA said.
Oil
Nearby time spreads for both West Texas Intermediate and Brent futures — which help gauge tightness in the market — are in retreat after climbing for much of the year amid disruptions to oil flows through the Red Sea. But crude prices themselves are still stuck in a tight trading range, an indication that a healthy balance exists in physical markets. Investors will be focused on monthly oil market reports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Tuesday) and the International Energy Agency (Thursday) for the latest read on supply and demand.
Agriculture
ADM, one of the world’s top agricultural commodity traders, has seen its market capitalization plunge by about 20% since suspending Chief Financial Officer Vikram Luthar in late January amid an accounting probe and cutting its earnings outlook. The investigation is centered around its nutrition unit, which makes higher-value products including flavorings and pet-food ingredients. ADM said earlier this month that it anticipates a “material weakness” in its internal controls, which won’t have a broad impact on earnings. In addition to releasing quarterly results before the market open on Tuesday, the company is expected to file form 10-K — a comprehensive summary of its financial performance.
–With assistance from Olympe Mattei and Nilushi Karunaratne.
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