The Conservatives have been in power nationally since 2010, years that saw austerity following the world banking crisis, Britain’s divisive decision to leave the European Union, a global pandemic and a European war that triggered the worst cost-of-living crisis in decades.
Polls show the Conservatives are losing support across the country, from affluent southern voters turned off by Brexit to working-class northern voters who switched from Labour for the 2019 election, when then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson promised to spread prosperity to long-neglected areas.
Those promises remain largely unmet, and Britain’s economic growth has come to a virtual standstill, with the country slipping into recession at the end of 2023 for the first time since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.
“In Kingswood, as across the country, 14 years of Conservative government have sucked the hope out of our country with a feeling that no matter how hard you work, you just can’t move forward,” Egan said in his victory speech. “It doesn’t have to be this way — you know it, I know it, we all know it.”
Conservative Party chairman Richard Holden called the results “very disappointing,” though the party said the low turnout — less than 40% of eligible voters cast ballots — was a sign British electors are not enthusiastic about Labour.
But University of Strathclyde polling expert John Curtice said the results confirmed that the Conservatives are in “very, very considerable electoral trouble.”
“The Conservatives are going to have to defeat the historical record to come back from where they are,” he told the BBC.
The Conservative losses may embolden Sunak’s many rivals in the fractious party, who are already positioning themselves for the leadership contest that would likely follow an election defeat. Some even want to oust Sunak sooner, replacing him with a low-tax, low-immigration right-winger who might win back voters from Reform. Others warn that foisting another unelected leader on the country might backfire.
Sunak’s only consolation is that Labour is also experiencing turbulence. Last week the party watered down a key green investment pledge, saying the Conservatives had left the economy too weak to honor the commitment.
Starmer also is struggling to stamp out allegations of antisemitism within the party. This week the party disowned its candidate for another special election after a newspaper published remarks he had made during a local party meeting claiming that Israel allowed Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack to happen as a pretext to invade Gaza.
Critics say it’s evidence Labour has not rooted out the antisemitism that festered under previous leader Jeremy Corbyn, a staunch supporter of the Palestinians and a critic of Israel. It’s unclear whether the controversy has hurt Labour in opinion polls.