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Bitcoin prices could top out at the $112,000 level if current buying pressure from ETFs continues.
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The “worse case” scenario is at least $55,000, which is still a nearly 15% rise from current levels.
Bitcoin prices could touch $112,000 this year if the current trend of inflows related to spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continues, on-chain data provider CryptoQuant said Sunday.
CEO Ki Young Ju said on X the “worse case” for bitcoin was at least $55,000, or a nearly 15% bump from Monday’s prices. The targets were made based on the effect of inflows on bitcoin’s market capitalization and a metric ratio that has historically indicated if prices were “overvalued” or “undervalued.”
“Bitcoin market has seen $9.5B in spot ETF inflows per month, potentially boosting the realized cap by $114B yearly,” Ki said. “Even with $GBTC outflows, a $76B rise could elevate the realized cap from $451B to $527-565B.”
Ki cited a ratio tracking bitcoin’s market capitalization to realized capitalization – a measure of active tokens at thier last traded price – as potentially marking a top for bitcoin at the $104,000 to $112,00 mark. The ratio would reach 3.9 at those prices, a level that has historically marked a price top.
Historically, $BTC market bottoms occur at an MVRV of 0.75 and tops at 3.9.
With current spot ETF inflow trends, the top price could reach $104k-$112k.
Without hype, maintaining the current level of 2.07, the price would be $55-59k. pic.twitter.com/RqphTGYroX
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) February 11, 2024
Spot bitcoin ETFs have amassed more than 192,000 bitcoin in holdings, as of Friday, since their launch nearly a month ago.
The funds have only been on the market for less than one month but have already attracted billions of dollars from investors looking to gain exposure to bitcoin without having to buy and store it directly.